基于波士顿矩阵的香肠中单增李斯特菌半定量风险评估
Semi- quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in sausage based on Boston Matrix
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摘要: 为使检测数据结果呈现更为直观并减少数据短缺造成的不确定性,本文采用波士顿矩阵法对低温香肠中单增李斯特菌进行风险评估。首先根据检测结果计算出实际检出率,并借助@Risk软件定义β分布,以95%置信区间的概率作为可能性检出率,进而基于波士顿矩阵理论构建单增李斯特菌检出率的风险矩阵,并据此判断样品风险大小。结果显示:在低温香肠生产各阶段中,各检测样品受单增李斯特菌污染风险高低依次为:原辅料>中间产品>生区环境>熟区环境。结果证实波士顿矩阵法可以较好地对单增李斯特菌检出率进行半定量风险评估,并为风险管理者提供决策借鉴。Abstract: In order to make the results more intuitive and reduce the uncertainty caused by shortage of data,this study was designed to verify that Boston Matrix could be used for semi- quantitative risk assessment.Boston Matrix was used to evaluate Listeria monocytogenes risk in chilled sausage.The actual detection rate based on test results was calculated,then the β distribution was defined by @ Risk software,and the probability of 95% confidence interval was used as a possible detection rate. Moreover,the risk matrix based on Boston Matrix theory was established for L. monocytogenes in chilled sausage. Results indicated that the risk order of each test sample contaminated by L. monocytogenes was as follows: raw materials > intermediate products > raw environmental district > cooked environmental.In conclusion,this method proved to be fit for semi- quantitative risk assessment,and might be decision- making reference for risk managers.
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