Probability estimate modeling of risk assessment on dietary exposure to biogenic amines via cheeses in China

Based on the analysis data of 8 kinds of biogenic amines (BAs) in 97 commercial cheese samples from China, and according to the dietary consumption data in the China National Nutrition and Health Survey reports in 2002, a probability assessment model was built using Monte Carlo simulation and @ Risk program.In the model, dietary BAs exposure distributions were constructed in populations of different regions, ages and sexual, with quartiles and 90% confidence intervals of corresponding statistics calculated respectively.The results showed that the dietary exposure to BAs via cheeses of urban population was obviously higher than that of rural population in China.And the female exposure tended to be higher than that of male in cities, while the case was on the contrary in rural areas.Compared to point estimate and simple distribution estimate, probability assessment was more accurate in variability and uncertainty in quality risk assessment methods.