Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Food-related Products Based on Supervision and Sampling Inspection
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摘要: 为通过大数据挖掘预测食品相关产品安全风险隐患，基于2018~2020年度食品相关产品国家监督抽查的7704批次数据，分析我国食品相关产品安全现状与风险因素，运用层次分析法构建食品相关产品综合评价体系，计算食品相关产品安全综合指数。结果表明，食品相关产品平均不合格率为4.56%，均高于同年度食品抽检不合格率。密胺塑料餐具、纸杯、餐具洗涤剂等7类产品不合格率高于平均水平，塑料杯、塑料菜板、不锈钢厨具等10类产品不合格品低于1%。跟踪抽查连续两次不合格企业比例呈现上升趋势，不合格产品和问题重复出现。层次分析法构建的综合评价体系由5个一级指标和7个二级指标构成，一级指标为影响食品相关产品安全的主要因素，权重从高至低依次为化学物质迁移0.354，微生物超标0.331，重金属超标0.171，物理性能不合格0.100，卫生性能差0.044。二级指标为食品相关产品种类，风险较高的产品有洗消剂（0.252）、纸和纸板制品（0.189）、塑料制品（0.177），其次是竹木制品（0.170）、金属制品（0.105），而玻璃制品（0.056）和陶瓷制品（0.051）风险相对较低。本文建立的综合评价指数与抽检不合格率趋势一致，可为相关产品风险研判和评价提供技术支撑。Abstract: In order to predict and deeply excavate the food-related products risks through massive detective information, a total of 7704 batches of national supervision and sampling data on food-related products were collected from 2018 to 2020 to analyze the current situation and risk factors. Subsequently, a risk assessment model by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was constructed and further used to calculate comprehensive evaluation index. The results showed that the mean fraction defective of food-related products was 4.56%, which was all above the unqualified rate of food sampling inspection in the same year. Products with higher risks included 7 categories, such as melamine tableware, paper cups and detergent etc. Their unqualified rates were all above the average level. And lower unqualified rates (less than 1%) were found in other 10 kinds of products, including plastic cups, plastic cutting boards and stainless steel kitchen utensils etc. The rate of unqualified enterprises showed an increasing trend, while nonconforming products and problems were repeated. The evaluation system was composed of 5 first-level indicators and 7 second-level indicators by AHP. The weights of the first class indicators which would affect the safety of food from high to low were 0.354 for chemical substances migration, 0.331 for microbiological disqualification, 0.171 for excessive heavy metals, 0.100 for physical performance and 0.044 for hygienic property, respectively. Secondary indicators were types of food-related products, and higher risk were found in detergent and disinfector (0.252), food contact paper containers (0.189) and plastics (0.177), followed by bamboo and wood products (0.170) and food processing equipments (0.105), while glasswork (0.056) and ceramics (0.051) were relatively lower risk. The results also demonstrated that the comprehensive evaluation index was consistent with the trend of nonconforming rate, and would provide technical support for food-related products safety risk analysis and early warning.
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图 1 2018~2020年食品相关产品监督抽检总体情况
Figure 1. Situation of supervision and sampling inspection of food-related products in 2018~2020
图 2 各类食品相关产品抽检情况
Figure 2. Sampling inspection status of various food-related products
表 1 2018~2020年各抽检类别食品相关产品合格率情况
Table 1. Results of qualifiation rates of various kinds of food-related products from 2018 to 2020
抽检类别 2018年 2019年 2020年 批次 抽检比例（%） 合格率（%） 批次 抽检比例（%） 合格率（%） 批次 抽检比例（%） 合格率（%） 食品接触用塑料制品 1130 49.05 98.41 1714 55.25 98.37 1149 50.00 98.52 食品接触用纸和纸板制品 565 24.52 94.33 455 14.67 91.65 450 19.58 93.78 食品接触用玻璃制品 274 11.89 97.81 264 8.51 96.97 160 6.96 99.38 食品接触用金属制品 335 14.54 86.27 289 9.32 79.58 174 7.58 75.86 食品接触用洗消剂 / / / 220 7.09 94.09 203 8.83 96.06 食品接触用竹木制品 / / / 160 5.16 96.88 100 4.35 100.00 食品接触用陶瓷制品 / / / / / / 62 2.70 96.77 合计 2304 100.00 95.57 3102 100.00 95.13 2298 100.00 95.73 
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表 2 食品相关产品不合格产品问题一览表
Table 2. List of unqualified products of food-related products
产品
大类产品
亚类不合格
检出率（%）不合格指标
（项次数）占所属产品问题的比例（%） 食品接触用塑料制品 复合膜袋 1.73 溶剂残留量总量（9） 52.94 热封强度（1） 5.88 阻隔性能（氧气）（4） 23.53 蒸发残渣（总迁移量）（2） 11.77 阻隔性能（水蒸气）（1） 5.88 非复合膜袋 2.04 脱色试验（1） 3.13 阻隔性能（氧气）（7） 21.88 阻隔性能（水蒸气）（21） 65.63 热封强度（3） 9.38 密胺塑料餐具 6.97 三聚氰胺迁移量（6） 24.00 耐污染性（9） 36.00 甲醛迁移量（6） 24.00 总迁移量（2） 8.00 高锰酸钾消耗量（1） 4.00 脱色试验（1） 4.00 塑料一次性餐饮具 0.39 总迁移量（2） 100.00 食品接触用纸和纸板制品 食品包装用
纸和纸板材料0.56 荧光性物质（1） 100.00 纸杯 12.20 感官指标（16） 72.73 杯身挺度（4） 18.18 渗漏性能（2） 9.09 食品接触用纸容器 5.62 荧光性物质（3） 8.33 抗压强度（19） 52.78 渗油性能（2） 5.56 砷（1） 2.78 轴向压溃力（1） 2.78 渗漏性能（3） 8.33 耐温试验（3） 8.33 快速泄漏试验（2） 5.56 高锰酸钾消耗量（2） 5.56 食品接触用玻璃制品 玻璃酒瓶 1.42 抗冲击（3） 50.00 抗冲击（2） 33.33 内表面耐水性（1） 16.67 玻璃食品瓶罐 2.34 内表面耐水性（3） 100.00 与食品接触的玻璃器皿 4.05 口缘铅（Pb）迁移量（1） 14.29 口缘镉（Cd）迁移量（1） 14.29 98℃耐水性能（5） 71.43 食品接触用金属制品 不锈钢真空杯 1.56 保温效能（1） 50.00 耐冲击性（1） 50.00 铝及铝合金不粘锅 2.9 涂层感官要求（1） 33.33 总迁移量（1） 33.33 不粘涂层耐磨性（1） 33.33 压力锅 9.09 工作压力（2） 7.69 泄压压力（3） 11.54 破坏压力（21） 80.77 商用电蒸煮
食品加工设备34.91 对触及带电部件的防护（17） 12.59 输入功率和电流（5） 3.70 泄漏电流和电气强度（3） 1.48 非正常工作（8） 5.93 稳定性和机械危险（6） 4.44 机械强度（4） 2.96 结构（12） 8.89 内部布线（2） 1.48 电源连接和外部软线（42） 31.11 接地措施（25） 18.52 螺钉和连接（9） 6.67 泄漏电流和电气强度（2） 1.48 外部导线用接线端子（1） 0.74 商用电动
食品加工设备50.79 对触及带电部件的防护（10） 5.56 非正常工作（28） 18.67 稳定性和机械危险（41） 27.33 结构（23） 15.33 电源连接和外部软线（36） 24.00 外部导线用接线端子（5） 3.33 接地措施（33） 22.00 螺钉和连接（3） 2.00 泄漏电流和电气强度（1） 0.67 食品接触用
洗消剂餐具洗涤剂 4.96 甲醛（甲醛含量）（2） 8.00 总活性物含量（11） 44.00 菌落总数（10） 40.00 大肠菌群（1） 4.00 砷（1） 4.00 食品接触用
竹木制品一次性竹木筷 1.92 霉菌（4） 80.00 二氧化硫浸出量（1） 20.00 食品接触用
陶瓷制品日用陶瓷餐饮具 3.22 抗热震性（5） 100.00
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表 3 食品相关产品跟踪抽查情况分析
Table 3. Secondary supervision and inspection of food-related products
年份 抽查
企业
数量不合格企业 跟踪抽查企业 跟踪抽查不合格企业 数量 占抽查企业
比例（%）数量 占不合格企业比例（%） 数量 占跟踪抽查企业比例（%） 2018 2218 102 4.60 / / 13 / 2019 3087 151 4.89 86 56.95 16 18.60 2020 2283 98 4.29 98 100.00 20 20.41 合计 7598 351 4.62 182 / 49 /
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表 4 判断矩阵标度及定义
Table 4. Scale and definition of judgment matrix
标度aij 含义 1 两个元素相比，具有同等重要性 3 两个元素相比，前者比后者稍重要 5 两个元素相比，前者比后者明显重要 7 两个元素相比，前者比后者十分重要 9 两个元素相比，前者比后者绝对重要 2，4，6，8 上述判断的中间值 倒数 若元素i与元素j的重要性之比为a，则元素j与元素i的重要性之比为1/a
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表 5 准则层对目标层判断矩阵
Table 5. Criterion layer judgment matrix
风险评估 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 权重Wi B1 1 1/3 1/3 3 5 0.171 B2 3 1 1 3 5 0.331 B3 3 1 1 3 7 0.354 B4 1/3 1/3 1/3 1 3 0.100 B5 1/5 1/5 1/7 1/3 1 0.044
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表 6 平均随机一致性指标
Table 6. Average random consistency index
n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RI 0 0 0.58 0.90 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.45
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表 7 准则层对方案层一致性检验
Table 7. Consistency check of the criterion layer to scheme layer
准则层B对方案层C 最大特征值λmax 一致性指标CI 一致性比率CR B1对C 7.760 0.127 0.0932 B2对C 7.758 0.126 0.0929 B3对C 7.684 0.114 0.0838 B4对C 7.717 0.120 0.0879 B5对C 7.736 0.123 0.0902
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表 8 方案层各项指标不合格率（%）
Table 8. Unqualified rate of each indicator of scheme layer (%)
年份 塑料制品 纸和纸板制品 玻璃制品 金属制品 洗消剂 竹木制品 陶瓷制品 2018 11.7 41.6 16.1 100 0 0 0 2019 8.0 40.9 14.8 100 28.9 15.3 0 2020 6.1 25.8 2.6 100 16.3 0 13.5
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